Mining vs cyanide. Obama vs McCain. Jared Polis vs Lincoln Navigator. The SUV always wins.

What does the November election in the United States hold for mining?  There will be a new president, and maybe control of both houses will change.  Will this be good or bad for mining?  In this posting we look at current trends that hold a clue to the 2008 US mining scene as sculptured by the newly elected politicians.

An analysis of future politics that affect mining is inevitably colored by the political views of the author.  My political views are therefore relevant.  You can take the facts I record below and reinterpret them for yourself on the basis of your political perspectives relative to mine. 

I confess the only party I truly admire is the Contrarian Party–I am a blogger, afterall.  When voting in South Africa, in Canada, in Albuquerque, and in Huntington Beach, I have consistently voted for the looser.  This failure to pick the winner was not deliberate, but rather the result of a profound distrust of obvious winners and their arrogance.  I have been accused by my children of being a Libertarian, but that is far too simple.  My liberal ladyfriend in Vancouver accuses me of being a radical conservative, but that is far too simple.  In Iowa, they call me a crazy Californian Liberal, but that is just silly.  In California, they………well you can fill in the blanks.  In private, I confess to conservative economic views and liberal social views.  McCain and Obama  categorize me as a “swing vote.”  Not a good basis for paying party dues, voting for winners, or predicitng the impact of the election on mining. 

 Now let us proceed to consider the possible impact of the upcoming election on mining.  The first results are already in.  Jared Polis is all but certain to be the new Democrat from Colorado in Congress.  He drives a Lincoln Navigator (a really big SUV) so he obviously likes things made of metal derived from mining.  He attacked his opponent on the basis of some silly letters she wrote, supposedly supporting Colorado mining.  He came out strongly in opposition to cyanide in mining.  But I can find nothing about outright opposition to mining in his platform.  But with a Navigator SUV in the garage, he could not.  Presumable he likes mines and metals therefrom that do not involve the use of cyanide.  He is very rich; apparently made the money by his own skills.  Thus maybe the mining industry should start to court him; get him on the side of responsible mining.  Afterall he represents an old Colorado mining area, change, and the inevitable future.  Like it or not, he may the Alexander of our age. 

Hopefully Harry Reid of Nevada, the son of a miner, and the Democratic leader of the Senate will be re-elected.  He has come out in favor of Barrick and their solar energy approach to mining in Nevada.  Sadly though he seems to have made many other crazy decisions.  And he has failed to excite the Senate to action that inspires Contrarians like me.  Still he is seeming pro-mining.  Not sure we need too many like him. 

Those evangelicals are pushing all sorts of lies to win the vote.  Calling the N word by any other name and warning of Obama as the coming of the anti-Christ.  Let us hope they sink into the slimes dam from which they arise….but from what I can work out most of them like mountaintop coal mining.  Sort of a damn good expression of the God-given dominion of man over the earth.  Although some of the more thoughtful and intelligent among them are beginning to interpret Genesis as God’s message to us to look after the earth.  It will be interesting to see how they fall out once in power over issues of environmentalism that affect mining.  Maybe it is best if they stick to politics as usual and leave mining alone:  better they stick to those hate topics like abortion, gays, guns, family infidelity well-hidden, etc. 

I suspect it makes no difference to mining who becomes President and who becomes Vice-President and hence one day President. 

McCain can call for lots of nuclear power plants, but that will do nothing to suck the water out of Cameco’s Cigar Lake.  Uranium will still have to come from Australia and other Canadian mines.  No president will get Colorado to go back to the old days of being the uranium capital of the Union. 

I am not sure Obama even know what nuclear power is.  And as long as he can renegotiate NAFTA to make it more expensive to import uranium, Americans will pay….so Colorado will remain uranium mine poor. 

The coal lobby will soon enough corrupt either Obama or McCain.  It may be easier to corrupt McCain—he has had lots of past practice in believing lobbyists—but Obama will soon enough give in once he realises that coal turns on peoples lights.  So coal is immune to the change of presidency.   

Nobody will mine oil shale while the Canadian oil sands are booming.  That issue is on hold for at least the next decade, well past the impact of the next president. 

As for gold.  Harry Reid in Nevada will ensure no change.  He can easily outwit McCain, and he can easily lecture Obama into common sense. 

As for common old things like aggregate and the input to cement plants:  seems as there are plenty of houses waiting to be bought at low prices.  And as long as we are throwing money into Iraq and Afghanistan we will continue to let the roads and infrastructure deterioration. Thus unless the next President can extricate us from those imperial adventures, no upturn soon in the need for construction-supplying mining.  McCain has already said we will be in Iraq for the next 100 years.  Obama may just pull off a retreat, with or without honor; at my age who cares?  So maybe the aggregate industry should be throwing money at him. 

Generally I get the impression Democrats feel sorry for everybody, but I cannot see how this excess of emotion will hurt or benefit mining.  Republicans like rich people and cutting their taxes, but I cannot see how this excess of rich-people pampering will benefit mining.  It probably does not matter if the Democrats or the Republicans win, at least as far as mining is concerned.  Neither will have much affect on how the Alaskans vote later this month on the Pebble Mine.  And, to my way of thinking, that early vote is the bell-weather of the future of American mining.  Watch that vote outcome carefully for it will probably have far more impact on mining than who wins as President in your constituency. 

PS.  Here are links to some previous postings on the politics of the national elections:

The Cyanide Test: Joan, Jared, or Will for/against Colorado mining

McCain on mining and Yucca Mountain for nuclear waste

Fort McMurray debates Obama versus McCain; oil sand mining or snake oil selling?

Asarco: a cautionary tale of mining methods, financial manipulations, and regulatory lapses.

Better Cindy’s $500,000 than a Mongolian election for successful mining.

Obama against Canadian mining: C.McCain against Mothers Against Drunk Driving.

Are Mary Ann’s views on mining more articulate than Obama’s or McCain’s?

Mining the electorate for votes and nuclear power.

Oil sands, oil shales, nuclear power, global warming, and all the political nonsense.

Mining with prayer & prejudice: West Virginia, evangelicals, and McCain unite to halt global warming.

How to apply the ten commandments in mining; according to Mike Huckabee

Reid of Nevada take on coal-fired power plants: is he a politician or a leader?

Senator Byrd, a politician from the mines and for the mines